Yellowstone Watch

If it's going to blow it's going to blow, not a darned thing we can do about it, so why fret over it?

If Yellowstone pops it's lid, David, you (in Utah) & I (in Colorado) are probably toast.

You might be in less danger than I am, you have a few hundred more miles of mountains between you and Yellowstone than I do, but I haven't been following the geological developments closely, so I'm not sure what they predict the fallout range will be. I have the general impression that more or less the whole western half of the continent would be uninhabitable by humans for a while.

So why fret over it?

Could you possibly pass a second glass of that chilled white wine, Cheryl? Yikes!

"So why fret over it?"

Yep, nothing you can do about it, except move to the eastern half of the country, but then you have tornados, hurricanes, crazy blizzards, etc. Though those things you can actually prepare for to some extent. If Yellowstone blows the Salt Lake Valley will be covered in 6-12" of ash making it uninhabitable, not a darned thing I can do to prepare for that so why even waste any brain energy thinking about it? Heaven knows my brain energy is limited as it is. There's a good chance that the Salt Lake Valley will get hit with a major earthquake some day, maybe even while I'm still living here, that is something I can prepare for so I have spent brain energy as well as other resources on that.

Apparently NASA is concerned about the number of earthquake swarms and that one of them registered 4.4.
It sure would be a photo op if it blew during the total eclipse in August. Hopefully, there would be enough time to issue a warning for those living in the danger zone.
It's times like these that I'm glad to be in Ohio, although I'm sure we'd get some fallout if it did erupt.

Even if we got a few hours or even a full day warning here evacuation simply would not be possible, it would be an instant immovable traffic jam. The only direction for escape would be South and we have only one freeway in that direction to evacuate over two million people. Rush hour traffic is a near stand still on that freeway as it is. I'd rather spend my last few hours of life at home doing something I enjoy, not stuck in traffic.

I figure if it blows now I'll get some great shots from up in Banff and Jasper. If it blows I think I'd rather be at Yellowstone than somewhere that gets covered in a foot of ashes and take 2-3 days of suffering before I actually died.

If it blows pretty much the entire country is toast. So why not visit and hope for a quick end rather than a slow death? Its a wonderful place.

Did you see Supervolcano? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WFaFfdOzPP8

I'm off to Iceland next week. Hopefully that volcano doesn't mess up our plans. Remember the last time it erupted and messed up all European air traffic?

It may be the end - or it is perhaps much ado about, well - not nothing - but perhaps not much nor really unusual: http://www.foxnews.com/science/2017/06/21/supervolcano-in-yellowstone-experiences-highest-number-earthquakes-in-5-years.html

Usually New England is the safest part of the country. Least extreme weather as well.

Dave

And just when sales picked up....

Seriously though, I hear something like this about every year. Last year, videos were posted showing all the animals "running away" from the park. While there were lots of quakes in a single week, there have been more active weeks in 2002, 2004, 2008, and 2010.

If it is time, bye folks.

Yellowstone Nature Photography

Most of the ash fall will be south and east of yellowstone (depends on the prevailing wind, although recent modeling shows that there can be significant upwind movement of ash). The extent of the ash fall will be dependent on how big the eruption is. If you go to this link at the USGS https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/volcanoes/yellowstone/yellowstone_sub_page_91.html there is a map of the recorded fallout area from the last 3 eruptions (ca. 2.1 mil, 1.3 mill, 640,000 yrs ago - notice the spacing between eruptions).

Here's a great book on the subject, 3 actually, by Harry Turtledove:

https://www.fantasticfiction.com/t/harry-turtledove/eruption.htm

Rich

Yikes!! I really hope it doesn't blow...I've still got so much work to do and so much to learn in this life time! I'm not done yet!

Actually, the Pacific Northwest is pretty much free of natural disasters if you're not counting Mt. St. Helens. We've had a few earthquakes here on the west coast, but it's nothing like the regular hurricane activity the east coast gets. The Pacific is called the Pacific for a reason.

I agree, though, if Yellowstone ever blew, we'd all be in for it.

Tiny earthquake here in San Francisco yesterday...actually the smallest and most abrupt one I've ever felt. Little rock, little roll...and it was over. It was from the Hayward Fault...which is East Bay, really not totally near here. But I always feel them up here on the top floor, even from way up near Santa Rosa. As always, it got my heart racing. You never know...any little shake could be the start of another Big One...there's just no way of knowing! Although the news said someone is working on an early warning system...a 3-second warning is as much as can be given...proposed to be ready in 2020. Three seconds isn't much, but it may be enough to get yourself under a table.

America's food producing areas will be covered in ash, so even if you survive, you'll be fighting your neighbor for the last loaf of bread on the store shelf, so you might as well go out trying to get a closeup of an American Bison with your cell phone.

....

Lara - geological events are not personal. :-)

Actually the Pacific NW will potentially suffer a major earthquake. The area from N. Cal to BC lies on the Cascade Subduction Zone, which could unleash a major EQ (larger than the ones in California); along with such an EQ there will also be the potential for tsunamis., The volcanoes will also create problems. A lot of the problems to the west of the volcanoes will result from lahaars (mudflows), as the ice on the peaks melts.

New England really doesn't get that many hurricanes, I guess hurricane Sandy was recent (2012) but that mostly impacted New York and New Jersey- I can't even remember if it was still officially a hurricane when it got to Massachusetts. It's mostly the Southern states that get hit with hurricanes- by the time they make it to us they've usually petered out a bit, or just go out to sea.

Before that we got hit with hurricane Bob (1991) and hurricane Gloria (1985).

And a big knock on wood!

It's true, there is potential here for a big one. On a daily basis, though, the weather is pretty boring. According to a Sperling's chart, we have the fewest natural disasters.

Blows what? Is there a volcano there?

Rose, apparently there is! I wasn't aware of that, either. I looked it up, and the last time it blew was 640,000 years ago.

We all live from day to day - maybe even from second to second. We have no idea, really, what is going to get us. You worry about the ash and whatever else will be sort of the direct result of a huge volcano like that - the north east will be no safe place - because it will most likely trigger a new ice age - and you may wish you lived a lot closer to the equator. Born and raised in Florida, living again in Florida - thank you, I'll accept the hurricane - now we have even more up to date advance notice of when it will be where that is plenty accurate to move out of it's way - or you can be brave and sit it out, watch the wind and the water.

Rose - there is no apparently about the Yellowstone volcano - that is what formed that basin and it still sits, fuming along underneath the surface - it's what causes the geysers and the mud boils.

I agree with that, Patricia. We are fairly benign with the weather here compared to a lot of the country (except for the droughts and fires, though.)

Greg, your photos are spectacular! It is just an incredible place, a real treasure. I will return to see more of your work.

Thank you all for the links! (Rich: Harry Turtledove? lol)

Joy, I did not feel that little earthquake yesterday. Sounds like you must be down town if you are so high up on a top floor. And you might feel more up there, certainly.

Edward, lol. Good time to visit Iceland, and have a wonderful trip!

For KL and other "readers" here is the link for Harry Turtledove and all his books! He writes a LOT of alternative stuff, IF Germany won the War,etc. but has some other really good novel series, like "Atlantis" which is about the "what if" the continent was split off from the Mississippi east, so all that land was out in the Atlantic and then discovered. Very logical stuff here and well written,

https://www.fantasticfiction.com/t/harry-turtledove/

Rich

p.s. wonder if "fracking" out there is negatively affecting the Yellowstone area, like it has in other states......???

Thanks Rich for the link, I appreciate an interesting perspective. Guaranteed, I will never forget his name! :}
Fracking: I thought about that possible influence as well. (?)

Yellowstone has had even more active periods in the past, long before fracking became a thing, so I think fracking is very unlikely to blame.

David,

With the amount of fracking happening in Wyoming and other areas, fracking can't be "good" for that seismic neighborhood.......THOUSANDS of wells!

Rich

I don't think there's any industrial fracking going on close to Yellowstone. Certainly not in the park (at least for now). There's lots of fracking in Wyoming, but well removed from Yellowstone as far as I'm aware. Yellowstone basically has 'natural fracking' due to the movement of thermally heated ground water. Earthquakes (usually very small) are very routine.

Greg,

Not sure if any of us here has any true understanding of what fracking does in the short or long term.

Rich

Wow...never knew that...also, I wonder who was around 640,000 years ago to record it exploding, lol

@Rose - isotopic geochemistry allows us to chronicle the geologic past quite well.

@Rich - I'm not a fan of fracking. It's just not a relevant factor for Yellowstone seismicity.

Not a fan of fracking either, Greg. It can't be good. We really have not been kind to this planet...

Rose, lol...

i suppose all that ash in the air, would finally cool down the planet a bit. of course not seeing the sun for a while, and the air would be dangerous to breath in, would probably be a bad thing. plus there would be moose and elk flying down from the sky locally.


---Mike Savad
http://www.MikeSavad.com

Greg,

As I mentioned, no one here has the knowledge that fracking can or cannot cause Yellowstone to erupt. Search the Web for Yellowstone and fracking near park and you'll find stuff like this:

"Okay, let's unpack some of this. I'll start with an aside that when searching for things relating to 'fracking' on the internet, it can be helpful to instead search for its more technical name 'hydraulic fracturing'. This will weed out some of the conspiracy mumbo jumbo and useless news articles, though you will instead find a plethora of oil and gas industry pages that sometimes verge on conspiracy theories in their own way.
In reality, very few people discussing fracking even know what exactly it is, so I would suggest starting with a look through this page which provides a relatively detailed discussion of what is typically done.
Moving onto earthquakes. To be technical, whether fracking causes earthquakes is 0% controversial as the whole point of the process is to generate fractures, which by definition will produce earthquakes. However, these earthquakes are extremely tiny and thus when people start discussing whether 'fracking causes earthquakes' almost certainly they are asking whether fracking, or processes related to fracking, induce seismicity that is 1) unrelated to the actual crack generating process and 2) is large enough to be actually felt or recorded. I would say the answer to this version of the 'does fracking cause earthquakes' question is yes, under certain circumstances. The textbook case for this at the moment is really Oklahoma. You can almost convince yourself that fracking is causing earthquakes just by looking at this time series of earthquakes in Oklahoma, but thankfully we don't have to rely on just that graph as several studies have been done recently linking fracking activities to earthquakes, for example this one or this one. In detail, it's not the fracking itself that's causing earthquakes, but pumping and storage of the waste water from fracking.
Now, the final part of the question, could earthquakes related to fracking trigger an eruption of a nearby volcanic system, like Yellowstone, the apparent world nexus of conspiracy theories regarding possible volcanic eruptions. It's first useful to consider whether any earthquake could trigger any volcano, and the answer to this question is yes, it can happen, but it's exceedingly rare. This page from the USGS devoted to this very question gives a good run down on this. There are a few documented cases of large earthquakes triggering volcanic eruptions, but the clear examples of this are largely restricted to situations where an earthquake rupture directly interacts with a volcanic system (i.e. fault under the volcano produces an earthquake).
All things considered, there is probably some non-zero probability that induced seismicity related to fracking could in someway influence the yellowstone volcanic system, but it's very unlikely and even more unlikely that this change in the system would be in anyway dangerous. So should you worry, I don't know, how much do you worry about personally being struck by a meteorite or being attacked by a shark while being struck by lightning? I would suspect the probabilities are close for all of those events.
permalinkembed "

"it's very unlikely" That makes me feel better!!! LOL!
"I would say the answer to this version of the 'does fracking cause earthquakes' question is yes, under certain circumstances."

and other statements from an obvious "proponent" of fracking,

Rich

Rich - I have a Ph.D. in geology, and I don't have reservations in stating that industrial fracking is not going to cause Yellowstone to erupt. Hydraulic fracturing obviously does induce seismicity. Oklahoma is a perfect example, as you cited. Yellowstone seismicity is affected by "hydraulic fracturing" in the sense that natural ground water is superheated above a gigantic magma chamber and subsequently moves upwards through the subsurface, sometimes violently (hence geysers and other geothermal features).

As a resident of the area I know there is significant industrial fracking in other parts of Wyoming well south of the Tetons. I wasn't aware of industrial fracking sites east of the park but I just did a search and found some sites. So it's conceivable that some measureable seismicity in the eastern part of the park is present from those operations. But that's not going to cause a super volcano to erupt. Yellowstone WILL erupt again. Hopefully not any time soon. It will likely be catastrophic. But the regular, daily seismicity in Yellowstone is due to the underlying volcano, not the cause of it.

Greg,

Thanks for the info. I've experienced "seismic" activity here in Orlando, twice, once a real earthquake years ago and another time, after visiting "Taco Bell"......

Rich

Rich, lol! I doubt Taco Bell will be calling you about a commercial...